
The Economist has recently profiled nations across Europe that could be ripe for social unrest if the continuing economic crisis leads to higher unemployment and harsh spending cuts.
France appears most ripe for chaos pouring onto the streets given the nation’s history of massive protests even during times of growth. The danger for France comes not from the mainstream unions that negotiate with the government, but from the fringe but growing Trotskyist Solidaire Unitaire Démocratique, or SUD. The union is has leadership, is militant, and will probably increase its noise ahead of work council elections this March. The paper describes SUD as “radical”.
Latvia is in worse position than France. The nation has suffered an economic collapse so serve it’s not the sixth-largest debtor to the IMF. It largest bank has to be nationalized. So far riots have broken out in the Baltic nation that have injured dozens of people, including 14 police officers. Might the economic downturn undermine people’s faith in Western liberalism consisting of free markets and democracy? It remains to be seen.
And, finally, Spain. The nation currently has the EU’s highest unemployment rate at 13%, the government predicts that to rise to 16% this year. A Spanish business school estimates a 20% unemployment rate for 2009. Either year Spain is suffering from a bust after years of a construction boom. Further, during the good times jobs were so plentiful that many Spanish student dropped out of school to start work earlier. But not they being laid-off and find themselves jobless and lacking a high school degree.
Of all the countries to watch it is France that will most likely once again put on a show as spoiled French youth take to the streets demanding their “right” to a 100%-safe job.
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