Already two of the thirteen original colonies, Virginia and New Jersey may have wanted to be extra-special in holding their gubernatorial elections in off-years. While the rest of states hold their governor’s races on even election years, for instance 2010 will see roughly of third of the states hold such elections; Virginia and Jersey will hold their races this November.

Thus with usually no other elections held in such years, 2009 will again focus national light on these two states. Such elections are usually read as a reflection of the public mood before the important mid-term or national election. In 1993, Republicans swept both races and went on to take Congress in 1994. In 2005, Democrats did the same thing winning both contests and then regaining both houses of Congress in 2006. Republicans hope that this year they will repeat their feat in 1993 and set the stage for some degree of victory in 2010.

Thus far they have cause for optimism. The Republican has a double-digit lead over his unpopular incumbent Democrat rival. And the GOP still leads in Virginia. But the Republicans should not celebrate too early. A victory in one state and a lose another would not raise party enthusiasm as much as the Republicans need right now. A victory is almost certain in Jersey, but a Republican loss in Virginia will lead to the Democratic and media chorus that the Republicans are still in a mess and could only win in Jersey against an unpopular and poor campaigning governor. A victory would be off-set by a lose and the GOP would still feel back where it started.

That should not necessarily have been the case. It was not long ago when the Republican candidate in Virginia - Attorney General Bob McDonnell - was also leading Democrat county lawyer Creigh Deeds by double-digits in an open-seat race (Virginia law prohibits the governor from seeking consecutive reelection).

Virginia has a Democrat incumbent, two Democratic Senators, a Democratic sate senate and the booming suburbs of Washington are, at least, socially liberal. President Barack Obama even won the state with 53% of the vote - the first Democratic to win Virginia since the son-of-the-south himself Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But that was then. Deeds is not popular with social liberals in the Democratic base for, say, his pro-gun values and his victory in the Democratic party was a surprise against Democrats with more conventional liberal views. Add to the lack of enthusiasm among some Democrats the fact that Obama is now more of a liability than an asset. The president polls at 42% in the state where many regret their vote for Obama in light of his recent health care reform advocacy. Deeds has been distancing himself from Obama and health care reform. Not surprisingly he has been polling so badly in a state where Democrats have been doing so well in recent years.

But then McDonnell made, unfortunately for him, a slip in mentioning to the Washington Post a master’s thesis he authored while a law student at a “university” founded by the ultra-conservative televangelist Pat Robertson (would you ever go to a university founded by a t.v. star?).

The Post naturally dug up the thesis and then ran bits of it on its front-page. What was written did not go down with well northern Virginia’s socially-liberal and affluent voters whom are crucial toward winning the race.

Written in 1989, when McDonnell was 34; the then law student wrote a creed against professional women. Besides writing that working women are “detrimental” to families and also believed that public policy should favor married couples instead of “cohabitators, homosexuals and fornicators.” Apparently, anyone whom has sex outside of marriage should face official discrimination in, say, securing a government job. McDonnell also called the legalization of contraception “illogical.”

Since the thesis has been made public, his Democratic opponent and the Democratic National Committee have been thoroughly publicizing it to tarnish the image of McDonnell. In 2006, Democratic Jim Webb won a close senatorial race, after months behind in the polls, against incumbent George Allen after Allen made a rhetorical slip. The Democrats are hoping for a repeat of history.

McDonnell has responded by claiming he no longer shares such views. He claiming that he is a supporter of working women and notes that at times his wife has worked, and their daughter is an employee for a defense contractor. Further, he states that he would not consider sexual orientation in state employment.

But many undecided voters may not be convinced and see McDonnell’s somewhat disavowal as nothing more than temporary for political expediency. McDonnell has a public record a legislator and state lawyer for being a staunch social conservative who has, among other issues, placed restrictions on abortion and was opposed to anti-discrimination rules for state gay employees.

Furthermore, McDonnell is stuck in a bind. Whatever he says to appease independents will only alienate his base of social conservatives whom like him for the exact same reasons independents are wary of. He can’t win without social conservatives, but also can’t win without enough independents. It is a Catch-22. McDonnell may not regret writing his thesis, but a politician should know better than to publicize his own controversial writings. Let your opponent do that.

Source: The Economist.