Russian academic Igor Panarin has found himself an attentive audience among the heavily Kremlin-influenced Russian media.

Mr. Panarin asserts that come fall 2010 there will no longer be a United States of America, but, rather, the US will split apart into a myriad of republics similar to the dissolution of the Soviet Union 18 years back.

It may appear initially easy to dismiss Mr. Panarin as a crack Russia academic seeking to stir controversy. But his theory is a decade old so this is not a momentary run at fame, and Mr. Panarin is a former KGB analyst along with being dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats.

He is often an invitee at Kremlin events and a guest on Russian media as an expert on Russian-U.S. relations.

As of late the media has become more receptive to the talk of a U.S. decline [one need not wonder why], and Mr. Panarin does as much as two interviews a day on the matter.

His theory, which Mr. Panarin insists is not underpinned by malice for he likes [or rather does not dislike] Americans, runs as
follows: Mass immigration, economic collapse and moral degradation will ignite a civil war in fall 2009 and the bottoming of the dollar. The U.S. will subsequently, by fall 2010, disintegrate into six blocks and foreign power will move in. California will be at heart of the new “Californian Republic, which will be under Chinese influence if not sovereignty. Likewise, Texas will be the center of “The Texas Republic” that will fall to Mexico or at least Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York [and, presumable, the space between] will form the “Atlantic America”. Mr. Panarin states, using his prescient analysis, that unlike the C.R. and T.R., the A.A. will remain sovereign, though they might join the European Union.

Canada will then grab [with mall cops?] a cluster of northern American states forming “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii will be a Japanese or Chinese protectorate. And, finally, Russia will “reasonable ... lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” How could it be anything but reasonable? ,but that does not keep Panarin from dreaming. A satellite image of Alaska hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he admits.

Recognizing the incredibly assertions behind his theory, Mr. Panarin is sensible enough to state that there is only a mere “55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur.”

Mr. Panarin states that he does not take any joy from predicting the grim future that awaits Americans. “One could rejoice in that process,” he stated. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Russia needs America as a trading partner and it negatively consequential for Russia when the breakup occurs. Though he does note that the demise of the U.S. will restore Russia’s standing in the world. Not that as a honorable academic he is considered with just neo-imperialist motive, after all Russia just wants Alaska for the extra hunting lands. The purchase of Alaska was ratified by the U.S. Senate on March 30, 1867 for $7.2 million [$111 million in today’s dollars].

Despite his fanciful rhetoric, the response of the Russian media has been a revelation once again of the deep anti-Americanism in Putin’s Russia. Russian broadcast have accompanied Mr. Panarin’s commentary with images of the homeless in America.

Mr. Panarin “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today,” says Vladimir Pozner, TV journalist in Russia. “It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union,” he added.